Tuesday 22 July 2014

It's unanimous: Don't buy these 9 stocks.

Differing opinions on stocks is what makes the market. And that’s why when you see unanimous agreement to not buy, or even dump a stock, you should take notice.

There are nine stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500, including industrial gas seller Air Products & Chemicals (APD), wood seller Plum Creek Timber (PCL) and chemical firm Dow Chemical (DOW) that get universally low marks from Wall Street analysts on average, S&P Capital IQ’s analysts and the stock research firm New Constructs.

To make the list, the stock need to get a “strong sell” or “sell” rating from S&P Capital IQ, a “very dangerous” or “dangerous” rating from New Constructs and an average “hold” rating from Wall Street analysts. A hold might not sound bad, except in Wall Street analyst parlance, hold means sell. Hold is the lowest average rating of any stocks in the S&P 500 (not a single S&P 500 company has an average “sell” rating).

Being cautious might make more sense now that markets are in flux amid geopolitical questions.

Each of the stocks ratings approaches is unique, as the firms look at companies very differently. New Constructs compares the company’s present value of expected future cash flows with the current stock price to see if it’s attractively priced, or dangerous. S&P Capital IQ uses a series of tests to evaluate stocks and Wall Street analysts have a variety of approaches, when when combined, gives a collective view on the stock.

These stocks aren’t getting low ratings just because the stocks are down — and analysts are reacting behind the curve. Just the opposite All but two, Plum Creek and public utility company Ameren (AEE) are actually beating the S&P 500′s 16.5% gain over the past 12 months.

If fact, in some cases, is the high stock prices (and high expectations) that are causing analysts to turn negative on some of these stocks. Take oil drilling company Helmerich & Payne (HP). The stock is up 69% over the past twelve months. Yet it gets a sell rating from S&P Capital IQ, a “dangerous” rating from New Constructs and a hold from Wall Street analysts. But in a report to clients in April about the stock, which rated it “underperform,” Credit Suisse sums up the problem: “Dealing with high expectations.” The firm reflected that the company is a strong performer, but even if its optimistic forecasts played out, Credit Suisse says it could only justify a $90 a share price. Shares are trading for more than $110 now.

Sometimes markets and reality get disconnected. It’s the analysts’ job to point these situations out — which they are in these 9 cases. We’ll see if all these analysts are right.

Below are the nine S&P 500 companies that have “sell” or “strong sell” ratings from S&P Capital IQ, “very dangerous” or “dangerous” ratings from New Constructs and average “Hold” ratings from Wall Street analysts:
Company     Symbol     12-mo. % Ch.     STARS rating     New Const. rating
Plum Creek Timber     PCL     -11.2%     2     Dangerous
Ameren     AEE     10.9%     2     Very dangerous
Chesapeake Energy     CHK     18.3%     2     Very dangerous
Vulcan Mat’ls     VMC     25.4%     2     Dangerous
NiSource     NI     26.2%     2     Very dangerous
Hospira     HSP     26.8%     1     Dangerous
Air Products     APD     33.4%     2     Dangerous
Dow Chemical     DOW     49.3%     2     Very dangerous
Helmerich & Payne     HP     68.8%     2     Dangerous

Sources: S&P Capital IQ, USA TODAY research
S&P STARS ratings: 5- Strong buy, 4- Buy, 3- Hold, 2- Sell, 1- Strong sell.


Culled from USA TODAY.

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